The trucking industry continues to navigate challenging waters in early 2025. After enduring a prolonged freight recession since late 2022, carriers in the dry van sector face contradictory signals – modest load volume improvements alongside stubbornly depressed rates.
This combination of increasing demand against stagnant pricing creates a complex operating environment. Oversupply of capacity remains the primary obstacle to meaningful rate recovery. While the market has seen some correction through carrier exits, the adjustment has been gradual rather than transformative.
Recent data suggests subtle fundamental changes that could signal the beginning of recovery. Load post volumes are trending upward, and load-to-truck ratios show improvement. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate reductions may boost consumer spending and industrial activity, driving freight demand.
Current Market Conditions at a Glance
Dry van load post volumes are 22% higher than last year, with the load-to-truck ratio at 5.19. Despite this, spot rates have declined in seven of eight recent weeks, averaging $1.66 per mile nationally, $0.07 higher than last year. The top 50 lanes average $1.92 per mile.
Contract rates remain pressured, with the primary service PPI down 0.7% year-over-year in late 2024.
The difficult industry headwinds persist as excess capacity weighs on rates despite volume increases.
Where Capacity and Demand Create Market Imbalance?
Freight volumes remain sluggish but show a slight improvement in early 2025. The Truckload Carriers Association reports ongoing operational adjustments among members as capacity correction continues.
Market Forecast for 2025
What Industry Experts Say About Rate Recovery?
Industry analysts project varying degrees of rate increases for 2025:
- Supply chain expert Jason Miller forecasts the primary service PPI for dry vans to increase by approximately 4% year-over-year by June, with potential increases of 6-10% in the second half.
- Argon & Co projects overall truckload rates to increase 2-4% in 2025, with tighter capacity likely pushing spot rates above contract rates in the latter half of the year.
Breakthrough’s annual report anticipates dry van contract rates to rise by 3.2% and spot rates by 9% in 2025. The persisting market headwinds proved more resilient than initially expected, but multiple indicators suggest relief is approaching.
The International Factoring Association reports dry van per mile rates have risen 10% in the last four months, with predictions of another 10% increase for the remainder of 2025. This would place rates at approximately $2.40 per mile.
When Market Recovery Will Likely Materialize?
Most analysts agree that improvement is on the horizon, though the timing remains uncertain. Here’s what the data suggests:
Year-over-year growth in demand is projected to start in May 2025
Estimated average demand increase of 1.4% compared to 2024
Trucking ton-mile index expected to show ~2% year-over-year gains by mid-2025
The first half of 2025 is expected to see improving conditions for carriers, with several demand tailwinds anticipated. Second-half improvements will likely be more pronounced, with gradual freight recovery potentially supporting a notable rebound.
The less-than-truckload carriers sector may experience recovery slightly ahead of the full-truckload segment due to its different operational dynamics and customer base.
Factors Influencing the Market
Several economic and policy factors are shaping the dry van market:
- The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in late 2024, with a 50 basis point cut in September followed by additional 25 point cuts in November and December.
- Potential major increases in tariffs create economic uncertainty, particularly for cross-border freight markets.
Moreover, the Trump administration is expected to loosen environmental regulations, potentially lowering operational costs for carriers. The persistent economic headwinds have been exacerbated by regulatory pressures, making any regulatory relief significant for carrier economics.
When Seasonal Patterns Affect Regional Demand?
In March 2025, produce harvests are ramping up in southern states, increasing demand for capacity. This seasonal shift causes drivers to congregate in the southern half of the country, potentially creating challenges in securing capacity in the upper Midwest or Northeast.
Construction and agriculture typically begin requiring more capacity in early spring, adding to demand and potentially limiting the overall market supply of trailers.
The dry van truckload market exhibits diverse growth patterns across different regions. North America remains significant, driven by demand from retail, manufacturing, and construction industries, as well as continued e-commerce growth.
Strategic Implications for Industry Players
Carriers are implementing diverse strategies to navigate current challenges and position for future recovery:
- 49% prioritize fleet and service expansion to capitalize on emerging opportunities
- 43% plan to raise prices or renegotiate contracts with existing customers
- 39% investing in route optimization and technology to enhance operational efficiency
Customer diversification strategies include:
- 44% aim to sign more contracts with premium shippers
- 43% plan to diversify their customer base to reduce dependency on any single sector
Expanding dedicated capacity arrangements is a focus for 37% of carriers, providing more stable revenue streams amid market volatility. This approach has proven particularly effective for carriers servicing industries with predictable shipping patterns.
How Shippers Are Adapting Their Approaches?
Shippers are evolving their strategies to navigate the current market challenges:
Top priorities when selecting carriers:
- Cost considerations: 57% rank this as the most important
- On-time pickup/delivery reliability: 48%
- Favorable shipment schedules: 37%
Transportation diversification trends:
- 55% of shippers plan to expand use of alternative modes (rail, intermodal)
- This strategy addresses both cost management and risk reduction
Evolving carrier relationship strategies:
- 47% plan to increase volume with existing core carriers
- 39% intend to diversify their carrier base
- 41% of large shippers ($500M+ revenue) evaluate financial stability when selecting partners
Focus on supply chain resilience:
- Building redundancy through multiple diversification approaches
- Developing relationships with both asset and non-asset providers
- Creating flexibility to withstand capacity constraints and market shifts
Bottom Line
As the dry van truckload sector moves through 2025, adaptability remains key to success. The data suggests a gradual improvement trajectory, particularly in the second half of the year. Carriers who maintain operational discipline while positioning for recovery will likely emerge stronger when market conditions improve.
Tech Rig’s Dry Van Dispatch handles load dispatching for carriers, focusing solely on efficient dispatch services. Our streamlined dispatching processes eliminate administrative burdens for drivers, allowing them to focus exclusively on driving. Carriers working with Tech Rig Dispatch benefit from professional dispatch communication and documentation handling in the challenging freight environment.
FAQs
What factors could accelerate the recovery of dry van rates in 2025?
Accelerated carrier exits, increased manufacturing activity, higher consumer spending due to interest rate cuts, and reduced regulatory burdens could all potentially speed up rate recovery beyond current projections.
How are smaller carriers adapting to the current market challenges?
Smaller carriers are focusing on niche markets, investing in fuel efficiency technologies, utilizing dispatch services to reduce overhead costs, and forming strategic partnerships with brokers who value consistent service.
What regions are showing the strongest recovery in the dry van market?
The Southeast and Southwest regions are showing earlier signs of recovery due to strong manufacturing growth, increasing import volumes through Gulf and Southeast ports, and seasonal produce demand.
How might AI and automation impact the dry van sector over the next year?
AI-powered load matching, predictive maintenance, automated documentation systems, and route optimization tools are helping carriers reduce empty miles, lower administrative costs, and improve asset utilization despite margin pressure.
